NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
All About What You Own
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 9.2.25
While attending our daughter’s wedding reception gatherings in England, the subject of the US stock market came up in conversation quite often. Although the views of the market by the blokes residing on the other side of the pond were interesting and varied widely, I was asked for my takeaway a time or two. I opined that the current market environment is quite different than “usual.” I argued that the US market is oftentimes driven by macro fundamental factors such as the economy, inflation, valuations, or the Fed, but that this cycle is a horse of a different color…
About September Being Negative…
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 9.3.25
The month of September is here. I have heard from a number of folks warning me that it’s the worst month of the year and I should take action. Someone actually told me that I should sell everything until October begins. Well folks, here are some facts, not narratives. On average the month of September yields a -1% return. But upon closer inspection the -1% return is not linear. Here is what we know from data. …
On Vacation
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 8.30.25
We were expecting volatility to pick up in August, but that hasn’t really happened. After a quick drop at the end of July, most broad indexes marched higher – at least until the middle of the month. After that, I think the market took a vacation and largely went sideways from there. So…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Not As Bad As Advertised
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 9.2.25
August delivered surprisingly strong gains—particularly notable given the month’s typical seasonal weakness. In addition, small-caps put in an impressive performance suggesting that investor risk appetite is growing…
Riding the Trend
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 8.29.25
Overall, the market is strong across short, intermediate, and long-term time frames. As long as the index remains above its key support levels, the bullish thesis remains in play. For example, even when the index briefly dipped below the 20-day moving average in early August, it quickly recovered, reinforcing that support level and keeping the short-term outlook bullish…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Small Caps, Big Dreams
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 8.29.25
As we noted a few weeks ago, we have been
watching small caps closely. Last Friday, small
caps broke decisively to the upside. Importantly,
they have held those gains this week. With the
prospect of lower interest rates, small caps have
the potential to be a relative winner over the
coming months…
Value Investing’s Blind Spot
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 8.29.25
For decades, Benjamin Graham’s value investing approach was the holy grail—find “undervalued” stocks using trusty old ratios, hold your nose during market mood swings, and rake in long-term gains. This style made Warren Buffett a folk hero. But times have changed, and the world has gone digital—faster than you can say “TikTok.” Now, Graham’s methods are starting to look a little…let’s say, vintage…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 9.2.25
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model