NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Can Small Caps Continue To Shine?
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 10.6.25
During the current bull market, there has been a lot of angst about the concentration of gains by a dozen or so stocks within the major indices. Our furry friends in the bear camp remind us that the “breadth” of the market is important and that markets where only a few stocks lead the parade have historically become problematic in the long run. Don’t look now fans, but small caps have been making a comeback lately. So, it is time to move away from the tech leaders and into the small cap arena?..
Pullback Not A Bubble – How To Manage Positions
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 10.8.25
There is so much talk about an AI bubble, which continues to be nonsense. I do enjoy reading the tweets and emails about how wrong I am, warning me of impending doom. Same folks who warned me about recession in early April and back in 2022 and 2023 because of inflation. These folks have become excellent contrary indicators. The markets are stretched. 100%. They have grinded and crept higher since mid-April without more than a mild pullback. And the masses remain stuck with cash and lower risk positions that have woefully trailed. A pullback is coming, but…
This Market Not Rhyming
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 9.26.25
As I’ve said many times, the seasonality factors are an excellent roadmap as to where the market tends to go at certain points during the year. Where the magic happens is when market trends start to agree with seasonality. So far, we don’t have an agreement…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Board , which is designed to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
This Trend Is Your Friend
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 10.6.25
There are always many factors that influence stock market performance, though they aren’t always clear in real time. What
we can observe is the consistent pattern of higher highs and higher lows, along with shallow pullbacks across multiple asset
classes—signs that the prevailing uptrend remains intact. These trends will eventually shift, though the timing is uncertain.
Until that occurs, we will remain invested and continue to participate in this favorable market environment…
Momentum Carries Into Fall
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 10.5.25
The market continues to show impressive resilience. The S&P 500 has maintained its upward path, staying above important support levels and showing no signs of breaking its longer-term trend. This consistency reinforces confidence that the advance which began in the spring is still healthy…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Bears Still On Vacation, So…
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 10.3.25
The S&P has enjoyed five straight positive months, and
October is off to a good start for potentially another positive month. With the S&P stretched to the upside, a small
correction would not be unexpected. Any correction would likely find support at the 50-day moving average – 3.6% down
from current levels. If/when that decline comes, we continue to advise buying the dip with any excess cash…
Venting And The Beauty of AI
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 9.26.25
I was helping a local charity make use of an empty building. I fed a couple of sentences describing my idea and the building to an AI, asking for a quick feasibility study. In half a minute, it spat out a business plan, complete with labor costs, equipment needed, Arizona rules, and max usage figures I could expect. The whole proposal took me less than 30 minutes to create—what once would’ve devoured a weekend…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 10.8.25
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model