NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Time To Panic? Or…
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 11.18.25
Stocks have moved into a bit of a risk-off mode lately as gloom and doom, talk of bubbles (which everyone sees this time around!), and of course, impending economic calamity appears to be the order of the day. So, with tech winners diving is it time to panic? Or better to…
Bonds Outperform Bitcoin With New Setup
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 11.21.25
On Wednesday I wrote about my total lack of conviction on how Nvidia’s stock would react to earnings, even if I knew exactly what they would report. Well, they reported an absolute homerun, blowout quarter with everything clicking on all cylinders. The stock and the stock market soared at the open. Lots of chirping and giddiness on social media. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the celebration; sellers flooded the markets….
Stay The Course
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 10.31.25
We haven’t seen much volatility in the past few months as we would have expected. But we also never saw a reason to do much selling. The theme has been to stay the course until the market sees a reason to be cautious. That just hasn’t happened, so staying largely invested has been the play. As we move into a stronger portion of the year, we will be looking for opportunities to lean a bit more into risk assets as it seems appropriate…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Fear Sells Newspapers
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 11.17.25
This past week included headlines that could make it feel as though the stock market was collapsing. Remember, financial news is designed to attract attention, often by sounding extreme. That is why we rely on charts and objective indicators to determine the actual condition of the markets. None of the charts shown above suggest anything approaching a sustained downturn. In addition to following the charts, we apply a disciplined approach to managing risk…
Inflection Point
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 11.8.25
In our November newsletter, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was likely due for a short-term pullback after reaching the upper boundary of its rising price channel. That expectation played out as the index drifted lower over the past week…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Driving In The Fog
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 11.14.25
During the most recent FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted that without critical inflation data, policy makers would be “driving in the fog” and that the smart thing to do would be to “slow down.” Now that the data is in question, the market is appearing to price in the chance that the Fed does in fact pump the breaks in regard to the rate cutting cycle. In addition to official data flow coming to a halt, numerous high-level Federal Reserve officials gave statements this week that expressed caution and decreased the likelihood that we see a December rate cut.
A Decade of No Returns?
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 10.31.25
The Wall Street Propaganda Machine, as I call it, makes it sound like passive, index fund focused, buy-and-hold investing is the only way to go. Up and down the line, Wall Street’s life is made easier if investors drink this Kool-Aid, just sit there and take whatever the market dishes out. Most of these firms tell worried clients “don’t sell, just be patient, the market always recovers, etc.” But if you look at what these same firms do with their own portfolios, they are extremely active traders. There is a big disconnect between what Wall Street firms want you to do and what they do themselves.
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 10.8.25
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model