NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Staying Seated on Bull Train
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 11.4.24
The current run for the roses has been based on/driven by central bankers around the world turning dovish, solid economic growth, strong earnings, even stronger earnings expectations, and a little something called the AI secular growth theme. Sometimes it is best to keep things simple in this business. As I’ve opined a time or two previously, if earnings are growing at a strong rate and at all-time highs, it makes sense (well, to me, anyway) that stocks prices should follow suit. So…
Market Caught Off Guard But Don’t Buy Everything
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 11.6.24
The election results are absolutely not an all-clear sign to buy anything and everything. Be thoughtful, careful and have a plan for when you’re wrong. Some of this euphoria will wear off quickly…
The Market Doesn’t Care About Your Politics
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 10.25.24
This month’s featured chart looks at how the stock market acts under different political party leadership with the header comment: “A gentle reminder that the stock market doesn’t care about your politics.”
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Models , which are designed todesigned to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Making Adjustments
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 11.4.24
This week will bring significant developments, including the U.S. Presidential election on Tuesday and the Fed’s interest rate
decision on Thursday. These events are likely to provide direction for the markets, particularly as election-related
uncertainty begins to recede. Our plan is to make adjustments as needed…
Can the Bulls Hold the Line?
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 11.2.24
The stock market remains in a bullish long-term trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 advancing strongly over the past year. Each index has seen brief pullbacks, ultimately resolved higher, affirming the market’s strength. Currently, both indexes are sitting at pivotal support levels. However, a change in momentum suggests caution, as we monitor whether these support levels will hold. The potential for continued advances exists, but a break below support could imply near-term weakness…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Parsing The Data
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 11.1.24
As we mentioned in last Friday’s note, we have a slew of data to parse this week. Earnings, jobs, the election, the Fed…
Private Equity: The Next Big Crisis?
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 10.25.24
If you are like most investors, you don’t think much about private equity because it is not generally available to you as an investor. Many private equity businesses are local firms. While they are too small to be listed on stock exchanges, you might deal with them on a daily basis. Their owners are private, hence the term “private equity.” For every stock that is publicly traded, there are around 1,000 that are private. I’ve been concerned for years about the number of listed stocks shrinking as more and more of them are taken private
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 11.7.24
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
All That Glitters
By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund
Published: 11.4.24
Physical gold ETFs are my highest conviction trade. I believe gold is both fundamentally and technically sound. If the market experiences a significant downturn this weak (though this seems unlikely), I plan to sell stocks with poor technical performance and hedge our remaining positions by buying index short ETFs, responding to potential election outcomes…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Asher Rogovy, Magnifina, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model