NAAIM Speaks is monthly newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.

Here’s Hoping the Fed Goes Slow

By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research

Published: 3.4.24

To be sure, what I like to call “Fed Expectations” has been the primary driver of the market action for some time now. And traders are hoping Jay Powell acts fast. But, history shows we’d be better off hoping Jay Powell takes it slow…

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Marrying Stocks Will End in Divorce

By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC

Published: 3.6.24

As has been the theme all quarter we continue to “prune and plant,” reducing exposure in those areas that have essentially melted up and adding exposure in areas that have not. In other words, you could say that we have cut back on those handful of super sexy stocks and sectors and rebalanced into the rest of the market. Again, that is how you successfully manage portfolios for the long-term. Otherwise, your portfolio ends up…

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And We’re Back To…

By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 2.23.24

We are two months into 2024 and we’re back to a very separated market – meaning only a select few segments of the stock market are positive, while others (Small Cap stocks and much of the bond market) are negative. But that doesn’t (yet) mean that the market trend isn’t still to the upside. At least for the S&P 500, which is being held up (again) by a very small selection of Technology stocks…

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The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall

By: National Association of Active Investment Managers

The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.

This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Models Board , which is designed to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.

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Link to NAAIM Indicator Wall

Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.

Should We Expect a Pullback Here?

By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group

Published: 3.4.24

February was a strong period for the stock market with all of
the major stock market indices posting postive gains for the
month. The RGB Stock Market Index, comprised of an equal
weighted average of the S&P 500 Index (large-cap stocks),
S&P 400 Index (mid-cap stocks) and S&P 600 Index (small-cap
stocks), moved steadily higher. However, the stock market is
a bit overextended and at least a small pull back would not be

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The Trend is Your Friend, But…

By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions

Published: 3.4.24

When I wrote last month’s newsletter the S&P 500 was nearing the upper end of its uptrending channel, but was not there yet. Over the past month, major market indexes continued to run higher and the S&P 500 is now at the top of its uptrending channel (see chart below). This is an area in which I would expect some market weakness in the near term. Not a change in trend, just some type of short-term pullback…

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The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model

Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.

Here is this week’s model allocation:

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The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.

More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings

The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.

It Can Be Lonely

By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management

Published: 3.1.24

Despite an inflation reading that showed no decline in our inflated inflation rate and a consumer sentiment reading that
showed more and more consumers worried about the economy, the market just keeps heading up! It humbles even the most
astute investor as current prices and the rise since October of last year defy most every metric of technical analysis. The much-
anticipated PCE report came out yesterday with results that were largely in line with expectations. While the inflation increase
seen in the CPI and PPI reports earlier this month were not confirmed, any hope of a falling inflation rate was similarly
dismissed. Wall Street, however, took the news and rallied… Go figure!

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The View from 30,000 Feet

By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management

Published: 2.23.24

I’m sure you’ve noticed how different the countryside looks when flying over it in an airplane, so we are going to take a look at the financial markets from a similar perspective to see what we can glean. This first chart shows the S&P 500 Index over past 30 years, and you can see there are long cycles where the market trended either up or down. But notice…

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The NAAIM Member Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.

Click To See the Current Exposure Index

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.

Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stocks market analysis, Stock Market Analysis, Stock market, stock market indicators, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model