NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
The State of the Rotation Trade
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 2.23.26
Unless you’ve been living in a cave, you are likely aware that the “Rotation Trade” has been the toast of the town this year. Apparently the powers that be decided that the stock market was going to look a lot different in 2026 than it has over the last several years. You know, where companies that have been growing at remarkable rates have led the way – while the rest of the market’s “troops” lagged badly. As in, very badly – for a very long time. So, as is often the case on Wall Street, the trading desks at the big banks and hedge fund managers decided it was time to flip the script in the new year. Time for a good ol’ mean reversion trade…
No Change in Bull Market
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 3.13.26
In the very short-term it looks like the major stock market indices are going to at least revisit this week’s low sooner than later. That scenario leaves open my worst case scenario of the 6500 area in the coming days and weeks. 6500 is not an exact point. It is a general range. Hitting that area would also have me downgrade the upside target for the Q2 peak. This is all part of the bottoming process I wrote about the other day. Let’s see what happens. And no, nothing has changed in my view that the bull market remains alive…
Time For Caution?
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 2.27.26
For a few months now we have been highlighting this shift from Growth to Value, which can be useful in understanding market context. When Growth leads, it tends to be a sign of strength for the overall market and economy. And when Value leads, it tends to be a time for caution. That doesn’t necessarily mean the market is falling, but…
War and Equities
By: Euan Sinclair Hull Tactical
Published: 2.27.26
The Rothschilds were one of the world’s richest families and went on to form a financial dynasty. In 1815, they were rumored to have made a fortune when they used a carrier pigeon to send the result of the Battle of Waterloo (which was “a damn close-run thing the nearest run-thing you ever saw in your life” according to the victorious general, the Duke of Wellington) from Belgium to London. Having the news before his rivals gave Nathan an edge over his competitors on the floor of the Stock Exchange. This is a good story. It isn’t true, but…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Early Warning Indicator Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Risk is Rising
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 3.16.26
The conflict involving Iran has altered market dynamics and increased uncertainty. Whether this ultimately develops into a more prolonged bear market remains unclear. However, recent market trends suggest that overall market risk is increasing. In response to the changing environment, we have reduced exposure…
A Topping Pattern?
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 2.28.26
For the past five months, the major indexes have moved sideways inside a broad consolidation (Darvas Box). That type of action often represents digestion after a strong advance. However, over the past month, conditions…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Crude Awakening
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 3.13.26
The Iran war, now in its 13th day, continues to dominate the tape. On Monday, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, broke his silence with a defiant first address where he vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a ‘tool of pressure’ and called for additional attacks on U.S. military bases in the region. The statement renewed fears that this conflict may drag on…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 3.11.26
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Euan Sinclair, Hull Tactical, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model