NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Are Valuations The New Problem?
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 6.2.25
The fact that the S&P 500 recovered the vast majority of the “tariff tantrum” decline (in record time, I might add) and has yet to show any signs of a meaningful retest, should be viewed as a positive. However…
Bulls In Charge, But Greed is Back
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 6.2.25
Markets begin June with the bulls in charge. May was a stellar month for the markets as the masses mostly wishing they were fully invested after selling into the tariff tantrum. Data don’t lie. And we saw incredible amounts of selling because folks reacted emotionally to geopolitical events which is about the worst thing anyone can do. It’s a losers game. But…
June Tends To Be Negative When…
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 5.30.25
Seasonality suggested a generally positive month for the S&P 500 with a mid-month volatility spike. The positive month looks in-line with expectations, though the volatility was later in the month than expected. So what comes next? If we continue on the path of how the major US indexes tend to act in the first year of a presidential term, then June tends towards being a negative month…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Headline Risk Doesn’t Mean Market Risk
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 6.2.25
Despite ongoing headline risks tied to trade and geopolitical developments, the markets have absorbed recent news with
relative stability, which in itself is favorable…
Above The Mendoza Line
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 5.30.25
The phrase “above the Mendoza Line” comes from baseball, where a batting average below .200 is considered very poor. In investing, the 200-day moving average serves a similar role as a performance benchmark. When the market is trading above this level, conditions are generally considered favorable. When it drops below, it is widely viewed as a bearish signal that suggests market weakness may lie ahead…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Adapting to the New Reality
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 5.30.25
Stock markets are very intuitive and eventually evolve to efficiently process new information. With the pace and disruption of the
current administration, it has taken awhile for Wall Street to catch up. However, the markets are beginning to adapt to the new
administration…
Can Anything Top AI?
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 5.30.25
AI is changing the world for both businesses and us here on main street, so what could possibly overtake it as the driver behind big economic gains? Robots? Maybe, but they will primarily be tools driven by AI and won’t create a paradigm shift like AI has done. How about Quantum Computing?…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 6.2.25
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Asher Rogovy, Magnifina, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model