NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Macro 2026: The Economy & Earnings
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 1.12.26
Looking ahead, most every Wall Street bank is looking for another strong year in the stock market. How is this possible with all the fretting about AI Bubbles, geopolitical events, inflation, and extreme valuations, you ask? Since this is a question I have grappled with myself recently, I thought this might be a good time to review the big-picture fundamental drivers of the stock market…
2026 Fearless Forecast – The Worst Year Since 2022
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 1.15.26
I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people who do not do their homework. They do not gather data, analyze data, model data and act on data. Instead, they blindly follow the mediocre research of others. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of nonsense by advisors who simply do not do their homework. But back to the forecast…
Managing Volatility is Mission Critical
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 12.26.25
This year we did a deep review of our investment strategies to evaluate what’s working, what isn’t, and opportunities to create greater efficiency. We noticed that some signals and data that had worked for over a decade were becoming unreliable and we saw the opportunity to adjust and realign what we do. The result was a more streamlined set of strategies designed to be clearer, more efficient, and easier to manage through volatility. …
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Primary Cycle Model Board , which is designed to identify the state of the primary cycle of the stock market.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Eyes Wide Open
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 1.12.26
While uncertainty remains, the weight of the evidence reflected in the charts continues to favor a continuation of the current uptrend. As we enter the new year, we have not made any changes to our investment strategy positions, but we remain focused on monitoring shifts in market leadership…
Where Do We Go From Here?
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 1.3.26
Long-term, the stock market remains in a bullish trend. However, over the past several months, the market has moved sideways, with price action becoming increasingly choppy. In this update, we look beneath the surface at key risk-on industry groups, namely semiconductors and Bitcoin. These areas often provide early clues about market direction. Together, these charts help frame what to watch next as the market approaches a potential inflection point…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
New Year, New Highs, New Leaders
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 1.9.26
For the last few market notes, we have talked about the subtle shift in market leaders. The tech stocks that have led for the last couple of years have
recently taken a back seat to the staider value names. While the shift has not been dramatic, it has been going on for over a month and deserves a little
respect…
A Token For Your Thoughts
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 12.26.25
When the terms “token” and “tokenization” first started cropping up in the news, I had to look up what they meant. I’m glad I had that background when I saw that tokenization will be coming to an investment near you, probably next year. Without getting too wonky on the topic, the SEC (the governing body of the investment industry) has given a go-ahead for tokenization of investments using blockchain technology. ..
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 1.13.26
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model