NAAIM 2024 Founders’ Award White Paper Winner Says Most Investors Have the Relationship Between the S&P 500 and Volatility Wrong
Littleton, Colorado – May 6, 2024 – The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has named Rob Hanna of Capital Advisors 360 as the 2024 winner of its annual white paper competition, the NAAIM Founders’ Award.
Hanna’s paper, titled “Chicken and Egg: Should you use the VIX to time the SPX?
Or use the SPX to time the VIX?,” challenges the prevailing market wisdom by maintaining that S&P 500 Index (SPX) action offers a more reliable basis for forecasting the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) movement than VIX action does in forecasting SPX movement.
“I believe most traders have been getting it wrong for years. Rather than using the VIX to predict SPX movement, more substantial edges lie in using SPX to predict movement of VIX-based products,” explains Hanna.
“Rob Hanna’s paper walks the reader through the history and construction of the VIX and how it has moved during major market sell offs. It’s an excellent overview of the interaction between the SPX and the VIX and why the VIX is actually a poor indicator of SPX moves,” said Ryan Redfern, NAAIM president and founder of Shadowridge Asset Management LLC. “He wraps up with a relatively simple model for trading VIX-based products for a potentially profitable trading strategy.”
The chicken and egg reference in Hanna’s title refers to not the question of whether the chicken or the egg came first but whether egg weight influences the size of the chicken and whether heavier chickens produce larger eggs. Hanna concludes that overbought/oversold SPX readings produce a more sizable edge in anticipating VIX futures movement than overbought/oversold VIX readings produce an edge in anticipating SPX moves.
Hanna’s paper has significant value to traders given the growing use of VIX movements in analyzing future market performance.
Hanna presented his “Chicken and Egg” paper and how it can be used to trade VIX-based investment products on Wednesday morning, May 1 at the Rosen Shingle Creek Resort in Orlando, Florida.
To receive a copy of the full paper, visit: Find A White Paper
About Rob Hanna
Rob Hanna is a Registered Investment Adviser Representative of Eastsound Capital Advisors, LLC d.b.a. Capital Advisors 360, where he manages numerous short-term quantitative stock and bond models, as well as VIX-based models and VIX option overlay strategies. He has worked as a full-time market professional since 2001, managing a private investment fund prior to joining CA360.
Hanna also runs QuantifiableEdges.com, focusing on quantitative market analysis. Quantifiable Edges provides research for individuals and institutions via a website and subscriber letter, published five nights a week, and hosts courses on VIX trading, market timing, and short-term trading. Hanna is a graduate of the Boston College Carroll School of Management. He lives and works in Massachusetts, serving institutional and individual clients across the US and abroad.
About the NAAIM FOUNDERS AWARD:
Launched in 2009, the NAAIM Founders Award is designed to expand awareness of active investment management techniques and the results of active strategies through the solicitation and publication of research on active management. $5,000 is presented annually for the best paper submitted to the competition.
The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) is a non-profit trade group of 125 member firms nationwide, collectively managing over $15 billion annually. NAAIM’s purpose is to promote the common interests of those investment advisors who provide active investment management services to clients. NAAIM’s many professional development opportunities are headlined by its annual conference – Uncommon Knowledge – which is held each spring in locations around the U.S. Other events are held several times a year on timely topics for our members, as are teleconference and webinar events. For more information, visit www.naaim.org
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