NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Bulls Failing (for now)
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 2.18.25
As you know I have been waiting, patiently and not so patiently, for the stock market to print fresh, all-time highs. I thought we could see a quick 1-2% spurt higher that would be more of a selling opportunity than a momentum train higher. So what happened when the S&P 500 as shown below got to the old highs? It drifted quietly back to where it began the day. I would like to see the index close above 6130 this week. That should cause the bears some consternation.
A Mixed Bag
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 1.31.25
The new year is off to a volatile start. It’s not exactly bad, but it’s not that great either. If you look at January by itself, the market looks strong. But if you look at it next to December or even back to November, the S&P 500 hasn’t made much progress recently.
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Eary Warning Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
The Weight of the Evidence
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 2.18.25
The stock market continues to fluctuate within a well-defined
range, showing little net progress over the past two months.
The S&P 500 Index ended the week near the upper boundary
of its multi-month trading range. A decisive breakout above
this level would be a constructive sign for the broader market…
What The Technicals Tell Us
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 1.31.25
Over the past three months, the market has largely trended sideways, and volatility has increased substantially over the past six weeks. Recent events, such as last week’s DeepSeek-driven selloff and today’s sharp morning decline following new tariffs announced by President Trump, have added to market turbulence and economic uncertainty. However, despite these short-term disruptions, the broader technical picture remains largely bullish…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Respecting the Price Action
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 2.14.25
The S&P bounced this week in the face of poor
inflation numbers. The large cap index looks to
finish the week up around 1.5%. The move up has
once again pierced resistance at the old highs. Note,
that we had a similar break-out in January that only
lasted a couple of days. At this point, the break-out
should be respected but it needs to be confirmed by
staying above resistance (now support) and some
follow through to the upside…
TikTok: What’s All the Fuss?
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 1.31.25
Tech guru Kim Kommando runs one of my favorite newsletters, chock full of the kind of tech tips we all can use. She recently wrote about how far TikTok reaches into the lives of those who use it, which is most young folks today. (Not me!)…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 2.19.25
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
Absorbing Negative News
By: Dexter P. Lyons Issachar Fund
Published: 2.16.25
The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are approaching historical peaks, and I anticipate they will break out and resume their uptrends after basing (going sideways) since December. The market has absorbed the negative news regarding interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts, which now appears poised for further gains; thus, we are positioned to participate in the next phase of this bull market…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Sam Bills, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Dexter Lyons, Issachar Fund, Jim Lee, Stratfi, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Asher Rogovy, Magnifina, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model