NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Who To Believe: The Trader Bros or the CEOs?
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 2.9.26
One of the biggest features in this market is the massive “argument” going on over the state of the AI trade. The question is, which side of the argument should you believe? Is it Wall Street’s trader bros who have shorted software stocks at a record rate or the CEOs of the world’s biggest, most profitable companies?
Bears Have It All Wrong, Again
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 2.9.26
The Dow Industrials hit my long-standing target of 50,000 which I first offered in Q4 2022. Now what? I dunno. I need to run more projections. For a market that’s right near all-time highs, folks are only chirping about the negatives. I cannot tell you how many times I hear something like “BUT BUT BUT” and then some political remark. Folks know that I don’t care about narratives. Biden was going to crush the economy. Trump was going to wreck the markets. All the nonsense. Gather data. Model data. Analyze data. Execute on data. It doesn’t mean that’s always right. It’s not…
Cracks In The Foundation?
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 1.30.26
The stock market is still somewhat overvalued, but that doesn’t mean it will stop going up just yet. And while I’m not as “bullish” on 2026 as many others out there, I’d agree that there isn’t much to be concerned with in the immediate future. There are indeed small cracks to the foundation driving prices upward, but what eventually happens to break it is still unknown…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Fundamental Factors Board , which is designed to be a summary of key external factors that have been known to drive stock prices on a long-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
February’s Can Be Tough
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 2.9.26
While seasonality suggests February can be one of the more difficult months of the year for the stock market, for now there don’t seem to be many reasons to be defensive…
Line In The Sand
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 1.31.26
For me, the QQQ and volume tell the story here. Together, these two can help determine whether this consolidation is a pause within an uptrend or the early stages of a breakdown…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
A (Very) Rough Reset
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 2.6.26
Volatility swept through the markets this week as investors had much to digest. Software and tech stocks began to slide and put equities under pressure. The selling in tech sparked a broader bout of risk-off sentiment that echoed throughout the major indexes and fueled what looked to be a substantial weekly decline…
A Token For Your Thoughts
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 12.26.25
When the terms “token” and “tokenization” first started cropping up in the news, I had to look up what they meant. I’m glad I had that background when I saw that tokenization will be coming to an investment near you, probably next year. Without getting too wonky on the topic, the SEC (the governing body of the investment industry) has given a go-ahead for tokenization of investments using blockchain technology. ..
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 2.4.26
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model