NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Bull vs Bear: The State of the AI Trade
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 12.15.25
Don’t look now fans, but the AI trade – you know, that high-octane corner of the market loaded with new-fangled semiconductor chips, cloud plays large and small, and those mind-bending large-language models – is still kicking up plenty of dust in the market. The question, of course, is whether the trade, which has been in vogue for going on 3 years now, is something we should continue with…
Minor Pullback Sets Up New Highs
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 12.15.25
Friday was one ugly day, especially in the popular and sexy AI space which got hit very hard. It is amazing that these one day plunges are so often accompanied by calls of a 10% correction or a bear market or worse. Then stocks recover and the bears hibernate again. Rinse and repeat. I don’t like the fact that a number of key indices got right back to the old highs and failed. And until we see new highs across the board, I will have the same small concerns. However, I continue to believe that the indices will gather themselves and run to fresh, all-time highs into 2026…
Looking Ahead
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 11.28.25
Volatility has returned, but just enough to give us a standard 5% market pullback in the S&P 500. It gave us a nice entry point to add new money into our models and even nudge them slightly more into the market. For now, the big picture is positive. But cracks are beginning to be more evident in the data, so our outlook in 2026 isn’t as positive as the past two years…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Price Trend Board , which is designed to tell us about the overall technical health of the market’s trend.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Using Some New Tools in Portfolios
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 12.15.25
We introduced market neutral mutual funds to the our Core and Balanced strategies in January of this year in response to
heightened uncertainty in the interest rate environment. This addition was intended to help the strategies better achieve
their primary objective: delivering reasonable returns while significantly reducing overall portfolio volatility. Since making
this adjustment…
Inflection Point
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 11.8.25
In our last newsletter, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) was likely due for a short-term pullback after reaching the upper boundary of its rising price channel. That expectation played out as the index drifted lower over the past week…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments such as those seen in 2015-16 and 2018.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Bullish Path Remains
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 12.12.25
Despite the fact that Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is likely going to be only one interest rate cut in 2026, we believe we are likely to get more as a friendlier chairman takes the helm of the Federal Reserve. Our take is the hope of a more dovish Fed will likely continue the rally into 2026…
Quantum is Clearly The Next Big Thing
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 11.28.25
Quantum computing has been in the news more and more these days, and as I study this subject, the more I am convinced that quantum computing will become the next great investment paradigm. Now, what do I mean by paradigms? These are not investments, per se. They are technological platforms that can spawn dozens of new industries. Each industry can inspire hundreds of companies, and it’s at this company level that investment opportunities exist…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 12.15.25
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the status of the stock market today…
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model