NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
It’s Sloppy Out There
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 8.24.26
With the dog days of summer officially upon us, I thought it might be a good time to take a look at where we are in the stock market right now…
Better to be Lucky than Good
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 8.21.26
On Wednesday I joined Fox Business’ Making Money to offer an update on recent picks in Merck and Moderna which released some groundbreaking and shocking news on phase III clinical trials on an MRNA vaccine for melanoma. Moderna was up more than 140% in one day. Our Unloved Gems owns both stocks and that makes up for a lot of mistakes I have made during the year. First, this was just luck to own them during the news release. This rarely happens to our companies. But…
Reasons to be Cautious
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 7.31.26
In the shorter-term, we’re seeing the S&P 500 stronger than the NASDAQ 100, as well as Large Cap Value stronger than Large Cap Growth. And to us, those can both be early-warning signs to use caution going forward. We’ve already made some small allocation adjustments along these lines over the past week or so, consistent with our investment process…
The Market Is Efficient (Eventually)
By: Euan Sinclair Hull Tactical
Published: 8.5.26
There are two stock markets. One is made of cash flows, discount rates, earnings, margins, inflation, debt, productivity, recessions, and all the other boring things that eventually matter. The other is made of beliefs. Not survey beliefs or what investors say on television. The marginal beliefs embedded in prices. Most of the time, we implicitly assume these are the same market. They are not…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Early Warning Indicator Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Rotation From Growth To…
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 8.24.26
The rotation from growth to value highlighted above is a natural response to this environment.
When rates rise, investors tend to favor companies with earnings today over those whose profits are expected years into the
future. Market breadth remains strong and high-yield bonds show no signs of elevated risk. I don’t see the signals that
would suggest the market is topping at this time.
Tale of Two Markets
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 8.2.26
The market has become increasingly divided over the past month. While many of the growth stocks that led the advance earlier this year have experienced meaningful weakness, other major indexes and a broad group of individual stocks continue to display constructive technical behavior. This divergence creates an important question for investors: Is the recent weakness in growth leadership the beginning of a broader market correction, or is it simply a rotation away from the market’s former leaders?
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Shifting Leadership
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 8.21.26
As we noted last week, some level of weakness was not unexpected as the markets continue to digest the strong surge that began the last part of July. The relative strength of the S&P doesn’t show the whole story as tech continues to lag and value leads. That shifted a little bit in August but remains something that we continue to monitor.
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 8.19.26
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Euan Sinclair, Hull Tactical, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model