NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
Constructive Resilience
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 7.10.26
The stock market continues to display the kind of constructive resilience that has defined this bull market for some time now. While the headlines may focus on the latest sector rotation and geopolitical noise, the bigger picture remains one of a fundamentally sound economy, strong corporate earnings, and an AI infrastructure tailwind that simply refuses to fade. Yes, valuations are stretched. And yes, the near-term action can feel choppy. But the underlying drivers continue to support the bullish case.
More Downside to Come, But Bull Not Over
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 7.20.26
Let’s start with the formerly high flying NASDAQ 100 which I have written about many times, especially lately. Recall that I added that blue arrow a few weeks ago to show an area that needed to be regained before the bulls could be in charge again. Not only has price not gotten back to 30,500, but it has now pulled back to my first downside target, the June low. I do not believe the weakness is over. There should be more downside to come before the next big rallies begins from lower lows in August or September. But the good news is…
Staying Optimistic
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 6.26.26
Historical seasonal patterns suggest we could be setting up for a strong July. The broad bond market is (again) offering no benefit to diversification, so we continue to be selective within fixed income rather than relying primarily on traditional core bond sectors. There hasn’t been enough of a reason to get defensive, so we haven’t made many changes in the past month. For now, we remain optimistic on the rest of 2026 until the data proves to us otherwise.
Attention Is Not Efficiency
By: Euan Sinclair Hull Tactical
Published: 7.15.26
There is a common, fairly logical story about market efficiency: the more people look at a stock, the more efficiently it should be priced. Attention brings trading, and trading corrects mispricing. Therefore, highly watched stocks should be harder places to find anomalies. QED. (quod erat demonstrandum, for those without the benefit of a classical education.) That story is partly right. Unfortunately, it is not always right in the same direction.
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Early Warning Indicator Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
Mixed Signals
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 7.20.26
The market is sending mixed but not alarming signals. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have paused after a strong run, while
the Equal Weight index and high-yield bonds continue to trend higher. June CPI came in meaningfully better than expected,
with headline inflation falling to 3.5% and core inflation also surprising to the downside. The positive inflation data was
overshadowed by a renewed escalation in the Iran conflict, with oil prices climbing again after the ceasefire effectively
collapsed. Q2 earnings season is well underway and results so far have been broadly solid, particularly among the major
banks.
Passing The Baton
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 7.3.26
The market looked noticeably different over the past month. Increased volatility in the major indexes and weakness in several former leadership groups initially raised concerns that a broader pullback might be developing. However, a closer look beneath the surface reveals a more constructive picture. Rather than signaling widespread deterioration, recent market action appears to reflect a rotation of capital into new sectors and industry groups. This broadening of leadership is encouraging and suggests the underlying bull market remains intact, even as the market transitions away from some of its previous leaders.
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
Resistance Is Futile
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 7.10.26
From a technical perspective, we are in a wide trading range but on the verge of a new uptrend. If the S&P can push to new highs (1.5% from current levels), a new uptrend will have been established (higher lows and higher highs). A good earnings season could be the impetus for another leg higher. While we are not complacent, we do like the way this market is digesting and handling bad news.
Is Apple Upsetting the Apple Cart?
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 4.24.26
Apple is developing what’s called “on-device AI” which means some AI tasks – like summarizing a text, editing a photo, or responding to a voice command – will be handled directly on your phone, off-line, instead of being sent to the cloud. With the incredible sums being spent to build AI data centers recently, many of us investors are watching the markets to see what factors could influence AI infrastructure spending in the future. After reading about Apple’s plans, I found myself wondering if their rollout of on-device AI might be the kind of issue that could burst the bubble…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 7.8.26
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Euan Sinclair, Hull Tactical, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model