NAAIM Speaks is newsletter containing market insights and analysis from NAAIM member firms. This newsletter is designed to provide a plethora of market analysis, indicators, some occasional humor, as well as a summary of NAAIM’s proprietary Dynamic Asset Allocation Model and Managers Exposure Index. The report is for informational uses only and is not to be construed as investment advice.
One Chart Explains It All
By: David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research
Published: 5.5.26
Investors can’t really be blamed for scratching their heads regarding the recent action in the stock market. One minute, stocks are down -10% on all things Iran. The quick dip certainly made some sense as oil prices surged, taking inflation expectations higher along with them. In turn, this put a crimp on the idea that the Fed could/would cut rates any time soon (even with a dovish new Fed Chair waiting in the wings). Continuing the macro extrapolation, investors feared that the war would weigh on sentiment with all of the above bringing down GDP growth, and, in turn, earnings. But then it happened. On March 31st, which just happened to be the end of the first quarter, the S&P 500 turned on a dime. Eleven short days later, the venerable blue-chip index had stepped lively to a fresh all-time high.
Why High-Net-Worth Portfolios Need Active Risk Modeling in 2026
By: Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC
Published: 5.5.26
For decades, the static 60/40 portfolio was championed as the definitive solution for a long-lasting retirement. The idea was simple: equities provided growth, and bonds provided ballast when markets declined. However, in today’s environment, that assumption deserves a much closer look. Several cracks have emerged for this traditional portfolio model, including the impact of increased longevity and major market volatility at the very moment you need your capital most…
Rapid Sentiment Shift
By: Ryan C. Redfern ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 4.24.26
The stock market has been on quite a ride since the end of last month. Many major indexes appeared to have bottomed just before March ended, kicking off a surprisingly strong rally that brought new highs to several of these indexes. I had mentioned last month that one of the biggest risks we saw was for a dramatic reversal off the lows due to a “rapid shift in sentiment.” That is exactly what we got…
Spring Cleaning
By: Euan Sinclair Hull Tactical
Published: 4.24.26
Spring cleaning is one of those phrases people use when they want to make something dull sound virtuous (or is spring cleaning just something done on farms and in TV shows?). In domestic terms it might mean swapping over a wardrobe or mopping out the hallway. But there is a market related point inside the domestic metaphor. Most portfolios do not suffer from a lack of opportunity. They suffer from accumulation. Too many positions were bought for reasons that no longer exist or were never very good to begin with. They remain because selling would require an unpleasant admission. Possibly the idea was weak to begin with. Or even more likely, there never was an edge at all…
The Message From the NAAIM Indicator Wall
By: National Association of Active Investment Managers
The NAAIM Indicator Wall provides a weekly update to a robust array of stock market indicators. The “wall” includes readings and explanations of indicators and/or models in the areas of price/trend, momentum, key price levels, overbought/sold readings, sentiment, monetary, economic, inflation, and market cycles.
This time, we’re featuring the Early Warning Indicator Board , which is designed to suggest when the market may be ripe for a reversal on a short-term basis.
Note: The Indicator Wall is a benefit provided to NAAIM Members and is password protected. To obtain a temporary password, contact NAAIM at 888-261-0787.
The Relevant Question
By: Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group
Published: 5.4.26
The S&P 500 Index reached a new all-time high this week,
capping an April that produced gains of more than 10% for
the month. The recovery from the February–March lows has
been sharp and largely uninterrupted. At current levels, the
index has little nearby technical resistance. The more
relevant question is ..
U-Turn
By: Craig Thompson, President Asset Solutions
Published: 5.1.26
Over the past month, the market has undergone a meaningful shift. What had been a weak and uncertain environment has quickly transitioned into a strong uptrend. The speed and persistence of this move are important and suggest that market direction has turned higher. At this point, I am very bullish. While the market is extended in the short term and could see a pullback, I would view it as a normal development in a strong advance and a potential opportunity rather than a reason to become defensive…
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model
Designed to be a value-add benefit to membership, NAAIM offers a Dynamic Asset Allocation Model based on the NAAIM Indicator Wall of indicators and models. The overall objective of the model portfolio is to dynamically adapt to changing market environments and to keep equity exposure in line with conditions. The model targets a normalized allocation of 60% stocks and 40% Bonds.
Here is this week’s model allocation:
The model has been run live on the NAAIM website for several years and has demonstrated the ability to reduce exposure to market risk during negative environments.
More on the Dynamic Allocation Model and Historical Readings
The NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model is for illustrative and informational purposes only, and does not in any way represent an endorsement by NAAIM or an investment recommendation.
May The Gains Continue
By: Bo Bills Bills Asset Management
Published: 5.1.26
We are back to being a little overbought so another sideways or small decline next week would be constructive. But this market just seems to want to go up. It is hard to chase the market at these levels if you have cash to invest but we still believe there is more room to run. Buy into weakness with any cash…
Is Apple Upsetting the Apple Cart?
By: Will Hepburn ShadowRidge Asset Management
Published: 4.24.26
Apple is developing what’s called “on-device AI” which means some AI tasks – like summarizing a text, editing a photo, or responding to a voice command – will be handled directly on your phone, off-line, instead of being sent to the cloud. With the incredible sums being spent to build AI data centers recently, many of us investors are watching the markets to see what factors could influence AI infrastructure spending in the future. After reading about Apple’s plans, I found myself wondering if their rollout of on-device AI might be the kind of issue that could burst the bubble…
Latest Market Insights Video
By: Ben Reppond Reppond Investments
Published: 5.1.26
Ben Reppond’s latest video reviews the current market trends..
The NAAIM Member Exposure Index
The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets as reported by our members in the organization’s weekly survey. Note that many NAAIM members are risk managers and tend to reduce exposure to the markets during high risk environments.
Click To See the Current Exposure Index
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Investors should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Tags: NAAIM, NAAIM Speaks, Stock market, Stock Market Analysis, stock market, David Moenning, Heritage Capital Research, Paul Schatz, Heritage Capital LLC, Rob Bernstein, RGB Capital Group, Ryan Redfern, Shadowridge Asset Management, Bo Bills, Bills Asset Management, Craig Thompson, Asset Solutions, William Hepburn, Euan Sinclair, Hull Tactical, Ben Reppond, Reppond Investments, NAAIM Exposure Index, NAAIM Dynamic Allocation Model